US Coffee C Futures - Jul 24 (KCN4)

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Record heat continues in Asia, Oceania, SA ...

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Viriato Magalhaes 5 hours ago

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CA, Mexico :).

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Viriato Magalhaes 8 hours ago

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In 1st estimate of Jan 2024 Conab projected conilon in ES to be 11.1mb. In today's report it is 10.8mb. 300kb lower or roughly 3% lower. Thus, CONAB admitted the problem. Yes, 3% is not 10% but it would be naive to expect it in second estimate. Important fact is, that the issues was noted and so, anybody may think for himself now, what the final correction is gonna be (if at all :)).

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Viriato Magalhaes 6 hours ago

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There are multiple comments/complaints on the matter. Nobody says All is lost ! but the coverage points to the fact that issue is real. It confirmed by weather stations and science. :) Some reduction (A) most likely will follow, can be very small, etc - nobody knows at this point... But what is more important, record is not possible - every one was expecting record :) ! There are comments about higher infestations (visually), they are on personal levels but it correlates with the science :)... OFF crop can be good if all will be ideal, but may be not so if current damage will affect 25 crop what may be the case for many origins, etc. Frost was in OFF 2021, now it is ON 2024, unless USDA will show 50mb A crop, it will mean that Brazil was not able to repeat the record on higher prices and most likely (in USDA terms) on more quantity of productive trees. And on 1.75% rate, 23/24, 24/25, 25/26 add 9mb to consumption. 23/24 global production got revised already by USDA reports, 24/25 at best :) :) :) will be stagnant :) assuming ALL origins, 25 is OFF crop and possible consequences of 23/24 heat wave effect for many origins, etc - those 9mb will come from where ? Stocks only. As MGom was saying, there are Always some Real physical stocks at every origin, nobody should doubt it ! But why would the producers rush to sell EVERYTHING in such a situation ? Unlikely... :) There are already talks within coffee :) chats that time is coming and fair price will be paid and Brazil will take its toll :) :) :) and producer will rule, at least for a while :), believe it or not :) ! Such a mood doesn't point to the intention to sell everything quickly ...

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Viriato Magalhaes 6 hours ago

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Simple math wise, flat production is of course not the same as drop, but in current situation it is bad, not neutral :), as those 9mb (of consumption growth have to come from somewhere... Paper balance will look bad :) !!!

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ShortDude 6 hours ago

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Are there any new rumors on farmer forums how the harvest is going?

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Viriato Magalhaes 5 hours ago

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Nothing very special, complaints that you're already aware of... The guy I referred to, commented on the issues of green, matured and dry fruit on the same :) branch :), was talking about ... whole MG !!! :). (During technical visits, the Agricultural Engineer and Editor of RC, Antônio Sérgio, has found uneven fruit maturation, showing the presence of green, ripe and dry fruits in the same rosette.) He's an editor of a specialized media, he would not talk nonsense... Some reduction via smaller/lighter/defective beans is in the cards, the question is what it's gonna be... But it means no record A crop is coming - it will disappoint many indeed ! :)

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Viriato Magalhaes 4 hours ago

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Nothing new of what you're not already aware of :). Open sources narration continues in a way that smaller/ lighter / defective beans problem as the result of uneven maturation, etc (high temps. dry spells) exists in whole MG. There are comments in popular coffee media with the pics, etc. Unlikely a conspiracy :) and would imply some adjustment on later basis. It is important, that after one of a kind recent drought, part of the issues were smaller beans, what resulted in more beans to fill the bag. :)

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To Mas 9 hours ago

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bear trap closing green

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Wojciech Urbaczka 7 hours ago

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I don't think it's closing green

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coffee arabica 10 hours ago

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very streng, usually every cherry has 2 coffee grains. Coffees from this crop that are arriving has 1 coffee bean or none.

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ShortDude 9 hours ago

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Do you think that CONAB is unaware of this fact?

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Bruno O Souza 9 hours ago

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ShortDude ShortDude i dont think that Conab already has this information as the coffees are starting to arrive at warehouses

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coffee arabica 5 hours ago

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Conab just call to exporters and warehouse and ask questions, they dont go around and make a serius research. thats bullshit

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ShortDude 10 hours ago

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CONAB is optimistic about crop. World is saved again by Brazil.

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ShortDude 10 hours ago

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ECF stocks are up too. 10% in April. MoM

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Viriato Magalhaes 7 hours ago

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Short Dude. Don't look at MOM as it may reflect some very specific issue, not necessarily or not 100% related to coffee itself. Better compare vs average for 4 months (J - A in this case) and vs historical mean - it gives more smoothed picture, and usually (not every first time) more correct one.

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Viriato Magalhaes 7 hours ago

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Sorry, for 3m average J - M ***** :) :) :) ! Also, this growth of roughly 300kb happened on ... record Brazilian export :) ! Cecafe projects 23/24 export about 46mb :) ! Decline in consumption/demand :) would assume bigger increase in stocks (comparing to historical mean) :), no ? :)

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sharp madoff 15 hours ago

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currently we are on a cross roads between longterm upper channel and recently build local bearish channel. I should not have close, but was blind yesterday, so hunting in process

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Viriato Magalhaes May 22, 2024 10:58AM ET

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Brazil supports their producers by all means :): ABIC, in partnership with the Horus system, releases a report on coffee consumption in Brazilian retail between January and April 2024. ABIC monitors retail sales through more than two million invoices collected monthly at check-outs across Brazil, with the help of Horus. The numbers reveal that consumption of the drink in the first four months of the year registered an increase of 0.16% compared to the same period of the previous year. In total, 4,963,725 60kg bags were consumed by the domestic market. In the first four months of 2023, the volume consumed was 4,955,567 bags. When comparing consumption from Apr/24 to Apr/23, it is possible to notice an increase of 9.20%. From Mar/24 to Apr/24, sales rose 1.11%.

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Viriato Magalhaes May 22, 2024 10:58AM ET

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(It is just part of the consumption :). )

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To Mas May 22, 2024 10:26AM ET

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buy with sl 215 tp 224

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To Mas May 22, 2024 10:26AM ET

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cmon baby move so we can have nice day today :D

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sharp madoff May 22, 2024 10:20AM ET

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i have cashed at twenty, looking for a buy around six, have a nice day!

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ShortDude May 22, 2024 5:11AM ET

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I must apologize to all analysts who have a problem with coffee crop predictions and have to wait until harvest. The price of orange juice is at ATH. All because of a disappointing crop in Brazil, caused by heat waves around January. Sounds familiar, doesn't it? It only became clear after the harvest. It seemed that predicting the orange harvest was easier than coffee, it's a big fruit, but no.

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Viriato Magalhaes May 22, 2024 5:11AM ET

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No coffee reports today. Remaining USDA reports, scheduled for May are: Brazil, Vietnam, Philippines, Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania - should be out until last day of May. And Conab should be tomorrow :). Some w-guys promise :) :) :) new heat records within next days from Texas to Brazil, including CA and Mexico (not necessarily coffee areas !). In general, high temps are still there...

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Viriato Magalhaes May 22, 2024 5:11AM ET

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Interesting Rabobank view at 24/25 crop as of April: total production 69.8mb, A production to grow 8.8%, R ... to remain stable, total production growth 5.7% vs 23/24. Three things worth of attention: 1) 5.7% growth from OFF to ON cycle is ... far from normal; 2) Does R production to remain stable means that some R problems are true ? :) 3) 69.8mb is in the lower part of the range 68 - 74mb. Besides, Rabobank projected that local roasters in Brazil will use more A in the blends due to narrow price diff between A and R :).

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Viriato Magalhaes May 22, 2024 5:11AM ET

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There is a study that researched the ability of arabica coffee tree (very regular one, not special drought resistant cultivars, etc) to withstand high temps and possible consequences. Study was based on LEAF temp of 49C within 45min and 90 min. Leaf temp may be !!!! air temp +12 - 20C FOR FULL SUN GROWN arabica trees (+5-7C shade grown) (depending on some factors, as wind, existing drought , etc). Study was conducted on 6 - 9 months trees, in perfect conditions, perfectly managed, soil temp was below 30C. Dropping pure scientific details :) (way too long to post), study had shown that: 1) younger trees and expanding leaves (growing) have been affected more than older trees and mature leaves; 2) on leaf temp for expanding leaves was higher vs on leaf temp on mature leaf; 3) treated trees (49C for 45min and 90min, two groups) did not produce any flowers and fruits vs their controls (same age, conditions, etc but not treated trees); 4) trees that did not produce flowers/fruits however IN THEORY should have more :) energy for growth; 5) recovery for 45min trees was shorter and damage was smaller vs 90 min treated trees, but both groups managed to recover in perfect (created) conditions - trees haven't died !!! The goal of the study was not to research the drop in production, but influence of the treatment on some specific photo/chemical processes, etc.

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Viriato Magalhaes May 22, 2024 5:11AM ET

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What comes from the study: 1) for full sun grown A trees (BRAZIL:)) 49C On Leaf temp would be: a) 49C - 12C = 37C air temp; b) 49C - 20C = 29C air temp; 2) exposure to the sun and so On Leaf temp for specific part of specific branch differs (many factors), most exposed parts of the branch are most risk; 3)nobody knows if for specific part of specific branch it was 45min or 90min of critical On Leaf temp, or MORE, or LESS but 45 min/90 min produced (by the study) no flowers, no fruits so, it would be reasonable to suppose that shorter exposure would create partial damage at least (or full damage to small part of the branch, etc); 4) trees will not die and it is seen from the pics/videos, circulating :); 5) if to believe the study :) - some droppy is in the cards :) as the temps have been recorded by the stations. Percentage is unknown as nobody measured On Leaf temp of every branch for every tree at every farm :) :) :), but as coverage was kinda wide, some small drop would be intact with the study and anomalies recorded. What is small ? In my view, whatever below 5%. Well, there were views that A will drop due to temps between 2 and 4% in MG. Study was made on A but it is unlikely :) :) :) that R is completely immune while A is not.

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Viriato Magalhaes May 22, 2024 5:11AM ET

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Important addition: study was based on ONE TIME heat treatment ( 1 group - 45min, other - 90min) ONLY. Thus, the effect of multiple treatments within short period of time was not covered. It may mean no changes at all re results of the study, or it may, as accumulated changes (damages) often produce different effect :).

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